{"id":67,"date":"2020-02-12T20:30:58","date_gmt":"2020-02-12T20:30:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/?p=67"},"modified":"2020-02-12T20:31:08","modified_gmt":"2020-02-12T20:31:08","slug":"covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/?p=67","title":{"rendered":"Covid-19"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The novel Coronavirus\/Covid-19 outbreak that started in Wuhan is concerning.<\/p>\n<p>It looks as though the virus is very contagious, and with a mortality rate higher than influenza &#8211; but with no vaccine or effective anti-viral treatment. What I am curious about are the figures being reported from China on infections and deaths.<\/p>\n<p>For the past fortnight, infections have grown by a very regular number in the daily Chinese update. The figures don&rsquo;t exhibit the variability you would expect to see in a normal distribution, and don&rsquo;t reflect the growing infection totals. If they are accurate, the Chinese quarantine efforts have been spectacularly successful, yet fail with unexplained regularity. Hmm. Maybe there is a local limit in lab testing or other limitation which puts a daily ceiling on how many cases can be confirmed?<\/p>\n<p>The last two days have seen figures released with a declining number of daily infections. Given the large population pool in Wuhan and the other major Chinese cities reporting infections, and the experience of cities like Singapore and Hong Kong, a decline infection growth strains credibility. I have seen a rumour stating only more severe cases are now being counted.<\/p>\n<p>This is a concern if China has determined the economic impact of quarantine is greater than the increased illness and death a widespread outbreak would entail. If there is a lack of transparency, other governments might under rate the risk and severity of the illness, ultimately risking more exposure.<\/p>\n<p>Hopefully, China has contained the outbreak, but it is disconcerting to watch figures that don&rsquo;t reflect an expected path.<\/p>\n<div id=\"bpp_credits\" style=\"clear: both; float: right; width: 200px; height: 70px; text-align:right;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.blogpadpro.com\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"text-decoration : none;\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"vertical-align: middle; font-size: 8pt; color:#999;\">Edited with BlogPad Pro<\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" style=\"vertical-align: middle; padding-left: 5px;\" src=\"http:\/\/files.blogpadpro.com\/images\/speech-bubble.png\" width=\"25\" height=\"25\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The novel Coronavirus\/Covid-19 outbreak that started in Wuhan is concerning. It looks as though the virus is very contagious, and with a mortality rate higher than influenza &#8211; but with no vaccine or effective anti-viral treatment. What I am curious about are the figures being reported from China on infections and deaths. For the past<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/?p=67\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=67"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=67"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=67"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skeggs.org\/wp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=67"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}